Ever since I was a young student I have loved casinos – I love the glitz and glamor. Every face tells a story in these places and I imagine everyone is fantastically rich. Of course the truth is probably a very different story. My friend recently announced he’d found a roulette gambling system that would make lots of money in casinos but I had to stop him before he set off for Monte Carlo with his building society savings.

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What my friend had discovered was called the ‘Monte Carlo’ or ‘Gamblers’ fallacy – I think you can notice the pertinent part of the name togel hongkong . This incredible roulette gambling system is based on the false premise that if you witness a series of deviations from the mean that these deviations will be balanced out by opposite deviations. So to put that into English if you watch a roulette game and notice that a red number comes up five times on a row then it becomes more statistically likely that black will come up on the next spin.

This of course makes sense logically (as something you might expect or be ‘due’) but mathematically it is incorrect. Each spin is an independent event and all previous spins have no bearing on the next spin. This mathematical fallacy is also the basis of another much touted roulette gambling system called the Martingale system. I’m sure anyone who has ever been to a casino has heard this one – you put your stake on say a red number coming up and then if you fail you keep doubling your stake until you win.

Of course Martingales has lots of followers but the existence of the extra ‘0’ on the wheel (or two in American casinos) is just one of the problems with this system. The other main problem is that to guarantee winning you would need infinite stake money. I find online casinos quite fun (apart from the cheesy music) – they also differ from real casinos in that they can never be truly random as the computer is incapable by it’s very nature of creating truly random spins (although it can get very close).

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